Up-and-coming property index

Property markets around the world are constantly changing. If you’re thinking of buying your first home in Great Britain and/or the USA, you’ll want to explore the up and coming property areas that are likely to boom over the next few years.

Share this guide
Feature image containing two men moving into a new house with the overlay 'Up-and-coming property index'

Due diligence is key when making big purchases like buying a home. If you are thinking of buying your first home, make sure you compare first time buyer mortgages to get the best deal for you.

Predicting which areas will be the best to invest in can be challenging. However, we can determine which areas have greater potential by considering a variety of factors that support real estate market growth. Your first time home can act as a significant investment, as you could see an increase in its value if you buy in an up and coming area.

This analysis investigates the most important factors to consider when looking for the best up-and-coming areas to buy a property. It includes average property price growth, business growth, the volume of young people migrating to the area, transport links and regeneration, make-up of employment, income, and poverty rates.

Read on to explore the biggest up-and-coming property areas in the UK and the US.

The biggest up-and-coming property areas in Great Britain

A map of Great Britain, highlighting the top 5 most up-and-coming property areas. East Cambridgeshire ranks in the top place with a score of 8.14/10.
1. East Cambridgeshire - 8.14/10

Annual house price change: 16.5% Inflow of 25-34-year-olds: 0.4% Train stations per 100,000 people: 6.7 Net change in businesses per 10,000 people: -8.3

Regeneration Annual income change: 4.5% Poverty rate change: -0.5% Annual employment change: 1.5%

East Cambridgeshire ranks as the most up-and-coming area for properties in Great Britain. The area has seen a massive property price growth of 16.5% over the last 12 months. This is coupled with reasonable 5-year regeneration figures, where income has increased by 4.5%, employment by 1.5%, and poverty decreased by 0.5%.

Located just North East of London, East Cambridgeshire is a largely rural district. Recently, East Cambridgeshire District Council has transferred its local land charges service to the national digital register. This allows users to access online information instantly, meaning buying decisions can be made earlier and the property buying process is much simpler.

2. Eden - 7.99/10

Annual house price change: 17.9% Inflow of 25-34-year-olds: 0.2% Train stations per 100,000 people: 11.2 Net change in businesses per 10,000 people: -9.3

Regeneration Annual income change: 5.9% Poverty rate change: -0.8% Annual employment change: 0.8%

Eden is a local government district in Cumbria, North West England. It has seen a huge 17.9% property price growth over the last year. Despite recording a negative change in business in the area, annual income has risen a solid 5.9% over the last five years. Poverty has also decreased by 0.8% over the same period.

Named after the River Eden, which flows through the district, Eden is the second-best place in Great Britain to consider purchasing your first home this year. The average property price has risen 17.9% over the last year and recent figures suggest this will continue. The average property price in Eden during October 2022 was £271,596, a steady 0.5% rise on September’s prices.

3. Bolsover - 7.80/10

Annual house price change: 14.9% Inflow of 25-34-year-olds: 0.2% Train stations per 100,000 people: 4.9 Net change in businesses per 10,000 people: 182.6

Regeneration Annual income change: 2.8% Poverty rate change: -8.7% Annual employment change: 1.4%

Bolsover ranks as the third-most up and coming area for first time buyers. It has recorded the second-highest increase in business of all local authorities in Great Britain, with an increase of 182.6 per 10,000 people. Property prices have risen a respectable 14.9% over the last year and the poverty rate has dropped a massive 8.7%. Income, however, has increased at a slower rate of 2.8% over the last five years and total employment by just 1.4%.

The market town of Bolsover sits on the northeast of the county of Derbyshire. Bolsover town centre is well-populated with local businesses, from traditional butchers to popular takeaways. Recently, a new multi-million-pound investment has secured approval for a new distribution centre with eight warehouses. In addition to growing business, 243 new homes have been approved for construction in the area.

4. East Devon - 7.78/10

Annual house price change: 17.3% Inflow of 25-34-year-olds: 0.3% Train stations per 100,000 people: 6.1 Net change in businesses per 10,000 people: -20.6

Regeneration Annual income change: 5.1% Poverty rate change: -0.1% Annual employment change: 2.7%

East Devon, located in the South West, ranks as the fourth most up-and-coming area to buy a home in the UK. House prices have increased by a respectable 17.3% with a reasonable increase in young people moving to the area (0.3%). While income has also risen by 5.1%, overall the percentage of businesses in East Devon has reduced by 20.6 per 10,000 people over the last five years.

East Devon is best known as a coastal town whose beach forms part of a designated World Heritage Site. IThe area also spans two AONB (Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty), which are similar to national parks. This means new developments are restricted to maintain the natural beauty of the district.

5. Argyll and Bute - 7.75/10

Annual house price change: 25% Inflow of 25-34-year-olds: 0.2% Train stations per 100,000 people: 16.4 Net change in businesses per 10,000 people: -2.9

Regeneration Annual income change: 3.9% Poverty rate change: -3.6% Annual employment change: 0%

Argyll and Bute has seen the largest property price growth of any authority on this list at a whopping 25% over the last 12 months. Argyll and Bute also has great transport links with 16.4 train stations per 100,000 people. Despite this, the area is in the minority of those authorities where employment has not increased over the last five years.

Argyll and Bute is located in the West of Scotland and forms the second-largest administrative area in Scotland. The average property price in Argyll and Bute as of November 30th was £206,735, following exceptional growth of 25% from last year when the average price was £165,416. On average, house prices rose by around £3,400 every month in Argyll and Bute.

The biggest up-and-coming property areas in the USA

Map of the US with the states with the highest/ most up and coming areas.
1. Montana - 7.80/10

Annual house price change: 17.8% Inflow of 25-34-year-olds: 2.8% Travel time to work: 18.4 minutes Change in business applications: 12.8%

Regeneration Annual income change: 7.7% Annual poverty rate change: -0.4% Annual unemployment change: -0.2%

Montana ranks as the USA’s most up-and-coming state for first time buyers. Situated in the North West US, Montana reports a solid 17.8% increase in property prices as well as some solid indicators of regeneration. Unemployment has decreased by 0.2%, poverty by 0.4%, and income has increased by a massive 7.7%.

Towards the end of November, Montana was granted a hefty $31 million in competitive federal tax credits to encourage the construction of affordable housing projects across the state. These credits aim to reduce the cost of construction materials and pass savings on to renters. Montana’s commerce department states that the credits will help fund the construction and maintenance of around 280 homes every year.

2. Tennessee - 7.29/10

Annual house price change: 20.8% Inflow of 25-34-year-olds: 3.1% Travel time to work: 25.4 minutes Change in business applications: 16.9%

Regeneration Annual income change: 6.2% Annual poverty rate change: -0.6% Annual unemployment change: -0.1%

Tennessee ranks as the second-best area for first time buyers. Property prices have increased a huge 20.8%, the third most significant in rises out of all US states after Florida and South Carolina. Tennessee has also seen a positive 16.9% growth in business applications and a promising 3.1% influx of young people moving into the state. Regeneration is also looking up in Tennessee, with income increasing by 6.2% and poverty falling by a dramatic 0.6%, the greatest fall of all US states.

Tennessee has seen the largest reduction in poverty of all states since 2018. Non-profit organisation Habitat for Humanity celebrated building its 5,000th house in the state of Tennessee in December 2022. More than 100 of these homes were built in partnership with local families living below the poverty line.

3. Arizona - 7.14/10

Annual house price change: 10.6% Inflow of 25-34-year-olds: 3.4% Travel time to work: 25.8 minutes Change in business applications: 13.9%

Regeneration Annual income change: 7% Annual poverty rate change: -0.4% Annual unemployment change: -0.2%

The future of the property market in Arizona is looking up, as it ranks as the third best area for first time buyers in the US. Arizona records positive growth in house prices (10.6%) and businesses (13.9%). Regeneration indicators are all positive, too. Annual income has increased by 7% and unemployment and poverty have fallen by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively.

In December 2022, The Arizona Housing Fund awarded $850,000 to several projects that will construct 200 additional housing units in the state. In addition, donations to the Arizona Housing Fund from home buyers and sellers in the state added up to more than $1.3 million, meaning more affordable houses are on the way.

4. South Dakota - 6.97/10

Annual house price change: 14.4% Inflow of 25-34-year-olds: 2.9% Travel time to work: 17.3 minutes Change in business applications: 6%

Regeneration Annual income change: 8.5% Annual poverty rate change: -0.3% Annual unemployment change: -0.2%

South Dakota earns the fourth from top spot for up-and-coming areas to invest in your first home in the United States. The state has seen the most significant increase in annual income of all states in the US (jointly with Idaho) alongside a 0.2% reduction in unemployment and a 0.3% reduction in poverty. South Dakota also records the shortest average travel to work time of just 17.3 minutes, suggesting transport links are abundant.

South Dakota Housing recently awarded a whopping $13 million for statewide affordable housing projects. Not only are property prices on the rise in South Dakota’s largest cities, Sioux Falls and Rapid City, but homes in rural South Dakota are also in greater demand than they were previously. Rural homes that historically had trouble finding a buyer are now selling a lot quicker.

5. Indiana - 6.77/10

Annual house price change: 13.3% Inflow of 25-34-year-olds: 2.7% Travel time to work: 23.9 minutes Change in business applications: 16.4%

Regeneration Annual income change: 6.6% Annual poverty rate change: -0.3% Annual unemployment change: -0.1%

Rounding off the top five up-and-coming states for buyers is Indiana. Property prices have increased by 13.3% over the past year, and business applications and income have increased by 16.4% and 6.6% over the last five years respectively. This pairs nicely with a 0.1% reduction in unemployment and a 0.3% reduction in poverty in the state.

While the average property price in Indiana has increased by 13.3% over the last year, housing sales have seen a 27% dip from November 2021 to November 2022. Despite this, Indiana has been featured on Realtor.com’s Hottest Housing Markets of the month for two months running as of December 2022.

FAQs

How do I get a first time buyer mortgage?

You will usually need a 10% deposit to qualify for a first-time-buyer mortgage. This means you need to put down a minimum of 10% of the value of the property you want to buy, and then you can borrow the other 90% through your mortgage. Other factors lenders will consider are: your credit score (low credit scores can harm you application, you can boost your score by paying all your bills on time and getting a credit card), your employment (lenders will like to see you have been in the same employment for around 6 months, and will definitely want to see proof of income), and that you don’t have any large outstanding debts.

Where are the up-and-coming areas in the UK?

Up-and-coming areas for first time buyers are not only found in major cities. As of December 2022, East Cambridgeshire ranks as one of the best up and coming property investment areas in the UK. East Cambridgeshire has seen a massive 16.5% increase in average property prices over the last 12 months. First time buyers should consider Eden and Bolsover as promising areas in the future of the UK property market.

Where are the up-and-coming areas for property investment in the US?

Montana has been revealed as the USA’s greatest up-and-coming area for property investment. The state has seen a solid 17.8% increase in property prices over the last year and has recorded promising indicators of regeneration. Unemployment has decreased by 0.2%, poverty by 0.4%, and income has increased by a massive 7.7%.

Methodology and sources

UK

House price growth was calculated using HM Land Registry’s UK House Price Index. Growth was measured as % change in the last 12 months from 01/09/2022.

Regeneration in the UK was measured using the following factors:

  • The annual percentage change in income was recorded from the Office for National Statistics’ Earnings and hours worked, place of residence by local authority: ASHE Table 8 and calculated as the average year-on-year change in mean income over the last five years (2017-2022). For Northern Ireland, data was collected from NISRA.

  • Poverty was measured as the number of children in absolute Absolute Low Income Poverty from Stat-Xplore over the five years from 2015/16 to 2020/21. Data shows the average year-on-year change in poverty levels over this period.

  • Employment was recorded from the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES): Table 6 with the average year-on-year change in employment % calculated over the last five years (2015-2020).

All following UK factors were calculated to show per capita data (using the Office for National Statistics’ estimates of the population for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland). Where data is sourced from 2020, local government structural changes since then were addressed by combining local authority figures were appropriate. 

The volume of young people moving into the area will be recorded as the total net flow of “all moves” in each local authority of the age brackets 25-29, and 30-34. England and Wales data was collected from the Office for National Statistics’ internal migration: by local authority and region, five-year age group and sex data. For Scotland, data was sourced from the National Records of Scotlands’ Total Migration to or from Scotland data as migration to and from administrative areas by age. 

Business growth per capita was measured as the net increase in enterprises in each local authority from 2017 to 2021 (calculated by subtracting the total count of deaths from 2017 to 2021 from the total count of births from 2017 to 2021). Data was collected from the Office for National Statistics’ business demography, UK data.

Transport links per capita were recorded as stations located in each local authority from the Office of Rail and Road’s estimates of station usage.

US

House price growth was calculated using data from Zillow from 10-2022 to 10-2021. 

Transport links were measured as the mean commute time (in minutes) for workers over 16 from 2016-2020 from the United States Census Bureau.

Regeneration in the USA was measured using the following factors:

  • Income change in each state was measured from the BEA’s personal income by state, 1st quarter 2022 data. 

  • Poverty was measured as the average year-on-year change in the % of persons in poverty in each state over the last four years (2018-2021). Data for 2018,2019, and 2021 was taken from the Center for American Progress, and 2020 data was sourced from the USDA

  • Employment change was measured as the total % change in unemployment from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Unemployment Rates for States. The last five years of data (2018-2022) were collected from this source using the Wayback Machine.

Business growth was measured using year-on-year change (2017 to 2022) in business applications in each US state from the United States Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics.

The volume of young people moving into the state per capita was measured as geographic mobility by age range (25-34 years) over 2021 (year estimates) from the United States Census Bureau for each US state. The United States Census Bureau’s State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2020-2021 was used to calculate per capita figures.

Read more like Up-and-coming property index:

UK mortgage statistics and facts: 2022 banner

UK mortgage statistics and facts: 2023

With the mortgage market changing, we share all you need to know about mortgage rates and borrowing in the UK

Read More

UK Buy-to-Let Statistics: 2023

This private rental sector has seen some incredible growth, but how how popular are buy-to-let mortgages and how has the mortgage market changed for landlords?

Read More
First-time buyer statistics and facts: 2022

First-time Buyer Statistics and Facts: 2023

The property market is tough for first-time buyers to navigate, but what is the average age to buy a house in the UK, and what is a typical house deposit?

Read More
Couple looking into a cardboard packing box

How to get a mortgage with no deposit

Here is how to get on the property ladder as soon as possible with a 100% LTV mortgage, or how to get a no deposit mortgage. There are several schemes and mortgages that can help, whether you are saving for your first home or have owned one before.

Read More
black family surrounded by moving boxes enjoying time together in new home

A complete guide to mortgages

Choosing the right mortgage will help you buy a home and could save you thousands of pounds. Here is everything you need to know to find the right one for you.

Read More
Happy couple with advisor

How to get your first mortgage

Getting on the property ladder is much easier if you know what help is available, where to find a mortgage and how to apply for a mortgage. Here is everything you need to know about how to get a mortgage and buy your first home.

Read More
Graphic of the creative commons logo

About Kellie Steed

View Kellie Steed's full biography here or visit the money.co.uk press centre for our latest news.