Look out for the next Black Swan. Actually there’s the rub you can’t, and that’s the point. You see the thing about Black Swans is you can’t predict when or where they will come from.

Did you know there are black swans? No? Me neither.

Back in the days before people could traverse the globe, before the internet, before air travel, before most earthly lands had been discovered, conquered and then divided, and of course before the advent of the smart alec, swans were white. Simple as that. It was just taken as a given. Swans. Were. White.

This was so much of a fact, that in the good old 16th century, in common parlance, something that was considered impossible, was known as a Black Swan.

So imagine the fright everyone got when a Dutch explorer returned from an epic journey through Western Australia, and announced that he had discovered hoards of black swans. I’d say that certainly set the swan, sorry, cat amongst the pigeons.

So landscapes can dramatically change. Discoveries can be dramatic and they can be life changing.

Once upon a time some bright spark (I apologies for the pun) discovered fire. No one could have predicted that. And the landscape changed drastically. People could shed a few extra layers of animal hide at night. Not having to dine out every night on steak tartare also probably made a nice change.

Another brainbox, probably as he watched a log roll off his newly invented fireplace, figured…“hmmm nice rolling action, what say I invent the wheel!!” I’d imagine GDP growth rates and productivity numbers that year went through the roof that year.

And what about the poor Red Indian who went and weaved himself a beautiful new carpet, clambered to the highest peak in the district and who then set about issuing forth the finest set of smoke signals ever seen across the valley. I’d say he was seriously cheesed off when some young upstart named Marconi went and developed the telegraph. Black Swan.

And so it comes to pass.

Black Swans are identified as having two main characteristics:

• They come as a complete surprise to wider society
• They have a major impact

Look at the demise of the silent movie for example. When some bright spark unexpectedly figured a way of incorporating sound into a motion picture, this proved an unmitigated disaster for the likes of Charlie Chaplin, Buster Keaton and Harold Lloyd. Black Swan.

Who would have thought that in the 21st century, you no longer needed to be talented, popular, interesting or intelligent to make it in the entertainment business. All you needed were contacts, an agent, hair extensions, irrationally white teeth and you had the hotline to the next ‘reality’ TV show. They say TV killed the radio star, well then surely reality TV killed the TV star. Black Swan.

So why am I prattling on like this?

Well it’s because as a normally fairly chilled out non-worrier, I am beginning to worry that we are starting to see a lot more Black Swans lately. They are coming thick and fast.

As an upwardly mobile, online, slick and twittering society, things are moving an awful lot faster. And bad news travels a lot more quickly, and there appear to me to be many moving parts, a few too many for my liking. And I am wondering which is the next part to move?

The recent ‘Subprime/Lehman/Oh my god where did all my money just go’ Black Swan fairly decimated the financial markets in the historical equivalent of a millisecond. And somehow, in what I would definitely call another Black Swan, the financial markets in the intervening period, and in particular the last 15 months have clambered back to astonishingly high levels, with the ‘survivor’ banks making astonishing profits once more.

So I am beginning to wonder is all of that sustainable.

As I wrote in an early blog here, I have been watching the Greek basket case carefully unfold. Or should I say unravel?! Every second day and every second paragraph I am reading about bailouts. And of course bailouts are nothing more than writing a cheque now that is drawn on your future.

So I worry ever so slightly about contagion, and a second order effect once again in the financial system. I worry about the other vulnerable economies in Europe, and I worry about the euro. I hope it proves to be a little battler, but for the time being I continue to holiday in other currencies - namely USD and GBP.

And now the Investment Banks are back in the cross hairs of the regulators and prosecuting attorneys. Goldman Sachs head is on the chopping block over it’s synthetic structured products activity. I can only guess that it wasn’t just Goldman Sachs who partook in that type of activity. SO are banks going to get hammered again?

And then a bit of volcano ash starts wafting over Northern Europe and we are all under house arrest. Then two weeks later, a gust of wind blows the cloud back over Ireland, and they threaten to close all of the air space again.

These are all unpredictable black swans.

My only conclusion from the moneyed/financial perspective is that I think it is best for me to sight tight at the moment and not be a silly billy when it comes to the stock market.

I wrote in another previous blog about the miracles of compounding.

So while all of this ridiculousness and uncertainty carries on, I choose to be thankful for what I have got, and will stay only 5% invested in that mad unpredictable Black Swan of a stock market, and it’s the rest into a safe and steady bank savings account that pays me a compound interest.

But will even my trusty bank account be sheltered from the next Black Swan? There’s the rub!