A 1.5 percent contraction in the economy is thought to have occurred over January-March 2009.
The economic downturn shows no sign of slowing, a new forecast from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has shown.
According to the financial research group, the UK's economic output shrank a further 1.5 percent in the first three months of 2009. This follows the release of official figures covering the last three months of 2008, which showed another 1.6 percent contraction in the economy.
NIESR's forecasts tend to closely mirror the official government results. For example, the group predicted a 1.5 percent drop for October-December last year.
The new figures testify to the effect the global credit crunch is having on output - and dims the prospect of an economic recovery beginning for months to come. The current downturn is also shown to be the sharpest since 1980, when official statistics recorded a three-month contraction exceeding two percent.
NIESR said: "The output fall so far is very similar to that of the recession that began in the summer of 1979… If the 1980s profile were followed, output would continue to decline for up to another year."
Nationwide's latest consumer confidence index, released today, makes similarly gloomy reading for analysts hopeful of a quick economic recovery. It tracked a general decline in morale, with fears of unemployment leading to many shoppers holding off on making large purchases.
Low consumer confidence tends to prolong economic downturns, with output affected by more conservative spending on the high street and in the property market.
