Economic Downturn 'Will be Worse in US'

by Michael Ross
Published on 1 April 2009
Economic Downturn 'Will be Worse in US'

Germany and Japan are also expected by a new report to suffer a sharper contraction in output than the UK.

Britain will fare better than other nations in the downturn but will still see a sharp contraction in economic output for 2009.

A new forecast from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) showed that the UK would see GDP decline by 3.7 percent in 2009. However, Germany, the US and Japan would see steeper falls of 5.3, four and 6.6 percent respectively.

Overall, the respected Paris-based economic group predicted that the global economy would shrink by almost three percent, as the continuing effects of the credit crunch feed through to the real economy. Unemployment is predicted to rise sharply as consumer and business confidence remains sluggish.

The OECD also said that government attempts to battle the crunch by injecting extra money into their economies would lead to near-unprecedented debt levels - although the report added that these efforts might prove "effective". In the UK, public deficits are predicted to widen to over ten percent of GDP in 2010 - although those of the US, where president Barack Obama has launched a particularly aggressive stimulus policy, are thought likely to hit 11.9 percent.

Fears over a renewed banking crisis, one of the major causes of the original downturn, were raised by the OECD. The report added: "The risks of an even gloomier scenario outweigh the possibility of a quicker recovery.

"The most important risk is that the weakening real economy will further undermine the health of financial institutions, which in turn deepens the slump in economic activity."

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