The sleek shall inherit the earth. Obama's landslide owed as much to style as substance, but what does a new America mean for us (and our wallets)?
It may seem churlish to focus on 'what's in it for us' given the historic nature of Barack Obama's presidential victory. Huge issues like climate change, global security, energy policy and, of course, the credit crunch are rightly top of the agenda, whilst the election of America's first black President is rightly seen as a watershed moment in the county's history. But these are tough times, so any glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel will be seized upon.
However, given that Obama does not officially take office until January and has not really set out his policy position (aside from 'change') in any detail, it is rather too early to say what effect his election will have on Britain in general and the economy specifically.
Having said that, there are some promising signs. First there is the fabled 'special relationship'. OK it may be ultimately rooted in Britain's huge post-War debt to the US (now paid off), but Britain has long been closer to the US than to its near-neighbours on mainland Europe. Sadly, for us, our role in that relationship has often been as the lapdog, meekly falling into line, tail wagging and tongue out.
Maybe not any more. Obama has for some time talked about 'recalibrating' the special relationship to ensure that "the United Kingdom will work with America as a full partner". Talk is cheap of course, so we will see what that means over time, but it has to be said that in terms of economic, foreign and social policy there is not a great deal to choose between Brown and Obama, which has to bode well for effective collaboration.
The response to the credit crunch is a case in point. McCain and Cameron were united in their predictable finger pointing response - acts of sheer cynical populism saw these pro-business, pro-free market politicians decry 'casino capitalism', forgetting that their parties had granted the gambling licence in the first place. Meanwhile Obama and Brown were busy doing something about it. OK, you might not like the response, but it was certainly better than 'do-nothing diplomacy'.
The point is that if you believe that a co-ordinated global response is what is required to fix a set of global economic issues, then the ability to co-operate on economic policy, based on a common set of basic beliefs, has to be a good thing.
Secondly, the fact that Obama’s Democrat Party has also secured a significant majority in Congress is also good news in terms of getting things done. If he can unite his party behind him, then he should be able to make decisions and take action, rather than talk, talk, talk – the state to which Bush has been reduced.
All that aside, the fact remains that we do not know very much about Obama’s policy stance. He may favour a protectionist policy, which may be bad news for UK businesses in the US, and those employed by US firms in the UK for instance – but that could just as easily be election rhetoric. The fact that little is really known about Obama's policy direction has already been reflected in the markets, with many edging down as edgy traders respond to yet more uncertainty.
Having said that, US markets have historically risen much faster under Democrat Presidents than under their Republican counterparts, so there is at least a glimmer of hope. Perhaps most importantly an injection of confidence, administered by Obama's victory and his pragmatic, action-based approach might be just what is needed to pull all those glum traders out of their funk. All we can say at this stage is, 'time will tell'.
